Picking the Skins – Super Bowl Sunday

And here we are. The end of the road. The final game of the season. The biggest event in American television. It’s the frigging SUPER BOWL. Which means that for me, a 49ers fan, I will be either reveling in triumph or we’ll all be going down swinging at the end of it all. My bet is triumph.

You know the drill by now.

Sunday 6:40pm (CBS/Nickelodeon/Univision)

Super Bowl LVIII

San Francisco vs. Kansas City (+2)

KC Rundown: Kansas City’s road to the big game seemed a bit perilous on paper but in execution a lot of things went in their favor for them to get here. Sure, they had a subzero sort-of-Ice Bowl at home that meant Miami couldn’t get any production going, but that meant going on the road for two games afterwards – and that worked out for them as well with a string of bad luck hitting Buffalo (Wide Right II) and Baltimore freezing up and forgetting their run game to cement all of those “playoff Lamar” memes again. Call it like it is, this Kansas City team was the beneficiary of some lucky breaks, but that’s not to diminish their talent or lay in some easy excuses for how they got here. The talent on this team is obvious from the first moment they take the field, especially the tandem between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, and they have a strong arsenal in their supporting skill players to make noise and form a wide gap in the score with ease.

The issue comes with one position, though: wide receivers, namely the untrustworthy duo of Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney, but that’s where Rashee Rice comes in to serve as a trustworthy pair of hands for deep passes and serve well as the de-facto WR1 on the offense. Another key factor for their offense is Isiah Pacheco, a running back prodigy who will stomp mudholes into tackles like it’s just a brisk jog, and with his combination of speed and force it’s going to be a true X factor for KC’s offensive scheming for this game. As for the defense, while their pass coverage has been stout all season their known blemish has been their run coverage – and against a San Francisco team that lives for the run, especially with Christian McCaffrey not caring what happens to his body as long as it means moving the sticks? That’s a blemish that needs to be covered up in a big way, or else he’ll be scoring big and getting triple digit yards.

But speaking of yards, we go back to Patrick Mahomes – everyone knows how slippery he can be when he runs and scrambles and how seemingly impervious he can be to sacks, but with this San Francisco defense hitting a bit harder than most he’ll need to be ready for blitzes or be ready to run for his life. His expertise is in the air rather than on the ground, so avoiding any and all pressures will be a must for this game, but it’s not a guarantee. He’ll have his main targets ready (Kelce, Rice, maybe MVS too), and they’ll be ready across the field just as much as Mahomes is for deep passes. It’ll be up to San Francisco to play the defensive game of their lives to put a stop to the ever-growing reign of terror from Kansas City.

SF Rundown: For this San Francisco team, what should have been an easy path to Las Vegas got a bit more difficult thanks to elements both in and out of their collective control. Their game against Green Bay was a downpour that got a little out of reach, but inevitably proved that this San Francisco team can, in fact, come back from behind and seal the deal on both sides of the ball. Their game against Detroit, however, was panned in the first half as a terrible defensive showing, one that was met with a scolding from DC Steve Wilks. But with a 27 point swing from San Francisco, they were able to secure an even bigger comeback and punch their ticket to Vegas, even if everyone was sweating a little bit, but it’s like the Journey song says: don’t stop believing, hold onto that feeling.

Heading into a matchup with a familiar foe in Kansas City, a foe that has bested them on three straight outings (including the Super Bowl four seasons ago), the defense needs to give 110 percent and WRECK SOME SHIT. You have expert linebackers in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, a tight corner in Charvarious Ward, and a front four that will make most teams wince for what they have to look across from, which means there has to be ZERO excuse for a lacking performance on the biggest stage. With tightened up coverage on KC’s main targets and pressures on Patrick Mahomes, this defense can set the cadence if they make a statement early. For the offense, as mentioned, Christian McCaffrey has been a total game-changer for this team, not just as SF’s RB1 but as THE RB1. He will be the key for the SF offense in this game, but don’t overlook a few series with Elijah Mitchell coming in to make some runs when needed. The same goes for George Kittle, as most teams know how fierce he can be when breaking tackles and making big gains, and in the air you have a delightful WR pair in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, both of whom are able to use their speed to burn many an ankle on the field. Let’s not forget the man, myth, and legend of Kyle Juszczyk, either.

And then there’s the man under center, the man who’s either the second coming of Joe Montana or the luckiest scrub in the world and there is NO nuance anywhere in between: Brock Purdy. For as calm and collected as he can be on the outside, he’s got the killer’s edge inside, with an exceptionally wide field of vision to use to his advantage both out of and in pressure. He’s got his targets, he’s got legs to run with, and he’s got a great blindside blocker next to him backing him up in Trent Williams – and you do NOT want to get on the wrong side of Trent Williams when trying to stir some shit up. But for the proverbial “Purdy vs. Mahomes” matchup, while Mahomes is sitting high atop the mountain of his conference the same can’t be said for Purdy, given all of the narratives surrounding him being in this position. He has to be laser focused in this game, in perfect sync with his receivers, and ready to unleash that killer’s edge all over Kansas City. The expectations for him are astronomically high in this game, same for San Francisco and ESPECIALLY for head coach Kyle Shanahan, and if there were ever as much of a chance for this SF team to finally finish the job it’s here and now.

My Takes: Despite this San Francisco team being the betting favorite in Vegas, the overall favorite has gone to Kansas City, and look – I get it. They’re the inevitable Thanos of the league, it doesn’t matter what they do in the bulk of the season because they’ll always make it to January and reach the Super Bowl, and they’re just the better team over every single other team with Patrick Mahomes being the PERFECT quarterback according to most pundits across the board. Most every other fanbase is not happy with this being the matchup because of other likable teams and stories that would’ve fit better, but at the end of the day it all comes down to one key factor: WINNING. It’s all about getting the wins, no matter what, and whether it was easy or ugly these two teams have gotten those wins when it mattered the most. And throughout this season I’ve seen two trends that have proven to be constants when talking about this sport:

First, proclaiming perfection is a jinx. It happened to Baltimore, to Philadelphia, to Dallas, even to Jacksonville for a brief moment, and it especially happened to San Francisco. How you recover from it will be what sets you apart from the others, and San Francisco certainly recovered from that jinx in the season in grand fashion.

And second, doubt the 49ers at your own peril. Remember the game against Dallas? And against Philadelphia? Look how all that turned out. (Yeah yeah, Baltimore, but we move on.) Some folks thought Green Bay was going to put San Francisco away, and they didn’t. Some people thought Detroit was going to put San Francisco away, and they didn’t. These two same mentalities are being spread across the pundit-sphere, as it were, in that there are proclamations of the inevitability of Kansas City and how perfect of a team they truly are when it matters the most, and that San Francisco has no chance against them because of Patrick Mahomes and not much else – remember these two trends for this game.

It’s also a strong possibility that I’m completely talking out of my ass and that I have no idea when I’m talking about, but hey, if I’m going down I’m going down SWINGING. So let’s get to the damn prediction already.

Prediction: Both teams have an equal number of strengths and weaknesses on paper, and both teams are poised to exploit one another’s on this night. Whether that means this will be a close defensive battle or a moderately-sized scoring duel will be left to be determined, but for both team to win there is a clear path they both need to focus in on. Kansas City can’t shoot blanks in the second half of this game with the firepower San Francisco has, and San Francisco needs their defense to play the game of their lives to stop this KC offense… or hope that Matt Nagy succumbs to singularity which is still a very real possibility, let’s be honest. Speaking as a 49ers fan, I have been a mental trainwreck for the better part of a month and I will be so glad when this game is over on Sunday night, win or lose, because I can’t deal with this much stress and anticipation on a yearly basis anymore. But you know I’m never going to pick against my team here, and I’m going where I always go for this season:

SAN FRANCISCO WINS SUPER BOWL LVIII.

VIEWERSHIP RECORD: 117 MILLION (total)

HALFTIME PEAK: 122.4 MILLION

“Had us in the first half, not gonna lie.” Picking the Skins – Championship Sunday

We’ve made it to the final two games before the BIG one. Fourteen teams entered this knockout tournament of sorts, and only four teams remain, but only two will make it to Las Vegas in two weeks. The stakes are sky high, the pressure is on, and the time has come to prove who’s the best of the best. And a whole bunch of other cliches, too.

Sunday 3pm (CBS)

#3 Kansas City @ #1 Baltimore (-4)

Prediction: For the sixth straight year, we are going to be punished for our naiveté in thinking a new leader will emerge and deal with Kansas City in the AFC Championship game, only this time there’s a wrinkle in the proceedings: it’s going to be held in Baltimore with a worthy challenger to the throne hosting the “Invitational” for the first time. Baltimore had an easier time last week, albeit it took some time to get there, while Kansas City had to rely on some bad luck on the part of Buffalo to secure their place in this game, but both teams are walking in below 100 percent. Baltimore will be down Marlon Humphries once again but will regain Mark Andrews in what will be a must-win game, while Kansas City will be without Isiah Pacheco which will neutralize their ground game to a notable degree. On the surface, this will likely be a quarterback duel between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes that will come down to who will yield first, which should make for a highly competitive matchup. One factor that will most likely play a key role in the on field production will be the weather – it’s going to be cold and damp all afternoon long with intermittent rain, and from what we saw last week we know that rain can hinder what happens on the field. Both teams need to play flawless football if they want to cash in their ticket to Vegas, and it’s poised to be a close matchup in what will likely be a VERY loud environment, so in comes my prediction – I’ve been going back and forth on this all week, and it’s practically a coin flip outcome for me to decide on. But if I have to pick one team if asked upfront, I have to go with the safe bet. I’m picking Kansas City. God help me.

Result: I don’t know if the injury report lied to me or there was a late change in the plans but we did get some players on the field for this game, namely Isiah Pacheco who looked… somewhat fine on this day. Baltimore, however, did not look somewhat fine. They looked sluggish. Everything was looking fine early, Lamar was using his legs effectively (and he caught his own tipped pass for a gain) but Kansas City was virtually flawless on the day. And they didn’t have to do much, they didn’t even score in the second half – it was a full-on Baltimore COLLAPSE in the second half. Between Zay Flowers negating a big gain for a taunting penalty, some aggressive roughing flags for some hard hits to Patrick Mahomes, and YET ANOTHER fumble touchback that cost Baltimore this time and cap off a complete shutdown of their offensive schemes. “Playoff Lamar” came back in the worst way possible here, to the tune of a peak of *64 MILLION* people watching the train completely derail while KC’s biggest fan cheers in the skybox. And the exclamation point on top? Marques Valdez-Scantling caught the game-sealing first down pass. *MVS* did it. That’s just mean.

W

Sunday 6:30 (Fox)

#3 Detroit @ #1 San Francisco (-7)

Prediction: Deebo is ready. The defense is zoned in. It’s going to be a brisk sunny day in Santa Clara. The only thing that stands in the way of the Super Bowl for this San Francisco team is a hungry Detroit team that has not only proved they’re in for the long haul, they’ve proven that they want EVERYTHING. And that’s not to be taken lightly. Fate and history have proven to be fortuitous in San Francisco’s favor, though, as not only have they beaten Detroit at home for 13 consecutive matchups but also Detroit has also lost their last 11 playoff road games. Not a great sign if you’re Detroit but this year this team has set fire to all of the bad history and are coming in hot. They’ll need to be on several heaters against a prepared San Francisco defense and be ready for a myriad of ground weapons to defend against. For Detroit, they want to shock the world and go all the way, but for San Francisco it’s about reaching the mountaintop and finally finishing the job – this is their fourth NFC Championship game in five seasons, going 1-3 in that span with the most recent one being the biggest outlier of the four. You all know why. Be ready for a dogfight, and be ready for the rematch to take place in two weeks – San Francisco gets the win.

Result: It was a tale of two halves. The first half was a massive beatdown from Detroit, going up 24-7 at halftime and silencing the Santa Clara crowd into a state of deflated shock. Down 17 points at the half? How can San Francisco, and especially Kyle Shanahan, come back from this? Well, it’s like the song says: don’t stop believing, hold on to that feeling. Cue the second half, and after a field goal combined with some unsuccessful fourth down plays from Detroit, San Francisco gets a large shift in momentum, and a little bit of luck with the play that is now unofficially known as the “Immaculate Deflection” with Brandon Aiyuk making a miracle catch to lead to a touchdown. Detroit then fumbles on the next drive, and San Francisco scores again – tie game. Another touchdown drive and a field goal later, it goes from down by 17 to up by 10. Detroit tries to swing momentum back with Jared Goff throwing deep for a late touchdown drive, but they botch the onside kick and that’s it – naturally, this meant that all of the pundits and critics have finally given Brock Purdy the credit he deserves for leading his team on a major comeback to get to the Super Bowl and of course that’s not what happened because those goalposts keep getting moved further and further back. But go ahead and keep the chip on our shoulder, it’s worked wonders the last two weeks, and now we have the ultimate test in Vegas to look towards, along with one last shot at revenge and glory. Keep the doubt coming, everyone. We’re thriving on it. Detroit, consider this loss your unofficial initiation into the contenders’ club, every team needs to have one when they rise to prominence. Now you have to work to get back to the championship next season, best of luck to you for it.

W

SUPER BOWL 58:

(AFC) Kansas City vs. (NFC) San Francisco

Ah yes, this ever-so-repeated matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers that has only happened… only one time, four years ago. The discourse is only going to get more and more intense as we draw nearer to the fateful Sunday in Las Vegas, so I’ll see you all next week for the prediction report.

Picking the Skins – Championship Sunday Predictions

We’ve made it to the final two games before the BIG one. Fourteen teams entered this knockout tournament of sorts, and only four teams remain, but only two will make it to Las Vegas in two weeks. The stakes are sky high, the pressure is on, and the time has come to prove who’s the best of the best. And a whole bunch of other cliches, too.

Predictions first, then the results. As usual.

Sunday 3pm (CBS)

#3 Kansas City @ #1 Baltimore (-4)

Prediction: For the sixth straight year, we are going to be punished for our naiveté in thinking a new leader will emerge and deal with Kansas City in the AFC Championship game, only this time there’s a wrinkle in the proceedings: it’s going to be held in Baltimore with a worthy challenger to the throne hosting the “Invitational” for the first time. Baltimore had an easier time last week, albeit it took some time to get there, while Kansas City had to rely on some bad luck on the part of Buffalo to secure their place in this game, but both teams are walking in below 100 percent. Baltimore will be down Marlon Humphries once again but will regain Mark Andrews in what will be a must-win game, while Kansas City will be without Isiah Pacheco which will neutralize their ground game to a notable degree. On the surface, this will likely be a quarterback duel between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes that will come down to who will yield first, which should make for a highly competitive matchup. One factor that will most likely play a key role in the on field production will be the weather – it’s going to be cold and damp all afternoon long with intermittent rain, and from what we saw last week we know that rain can hinder what happens on the field. Both teams need to play flawless football if they want to cash in their ticket to Vegas, and it’s poised to be a close matchup in what will likely be a VERY loud environment, so in comes my prediction – I’ve been going back and forth on this all week, and it’s practically a coin flip outcome for me to decide on. But if I have to pick one team if asked upfront, I have to go with the safe bet. I’m picking Kansas City. God help me.

Sunday 6:30 (Fox)

#3 Detroit @ #1 San Francisco (-7)

Prediction: Deebo is ready. The defense is zoned in. It’s going to be a brisk sunny day in Santa Clara. The only thing that stands in the way of the Super Bowl for this San Francisco team is a hungry Detroit team that has not only proved they’re in for the long haul, they’ve proven that they want EVERYTHING. And that’s not to be taken lightly. Fate and history have proven to be fortuitous in San Francisco’s favor, though, as not only have they beaten Detroit at home for 13 consecutive matchups but also Detroit has also lost their last 11 playoff road games. Not a great sign if you’re Detroit but this year this team has set fire to all of the bad history and are coming in hot. They’ll need to be on several heaters against a prepared San Francisco defense and be ready for a myriad of ground weapons to defend against. For Detroit, they want to shock the world and go all the way, but for San Francisco it’s about reaching the mountaintop and finally finishing the job – this is their fourth NFC Championship game in five seasons, going 1-3 in that span with the most recent one being the biggest outlier of the four. You all know why. Be ready for a dogfight, and be ready for the rematch to take place in two weeks – San Francisco gets the win.

SUPER BOWL 58 PREDICTION:

(AFC) Kansas City
vs.
(NFC) San Francisco 

“YouTuber drama? Imagine that.” (RE: Emile)

Imagine following someone on YouTube for the better part of a decade-plus with the connection of a shared affinity for video games.

Imagine following someone on YouTube for the better part of a decade-plus with the connection of a shared affinity for Pokémon games.

Imagine following someone on YouTube for the better part of a decade-plus and following their life and all of the ups and downs that come with it in that decade-plus.

Now imagine that very someone being outed for detrimental misconduct, i.e. sexual harassment, with claims and receipts that run back several years, completely shattering your preconceived notions about that very someone who, as mentioned, you’ve followed for the better part of a decade-plus.

It’s never easy.

The word “disappointment” does not come close to the feelings that I have toward this individual. Putting aside my own conflicted and complex feelings about gender norms and the notion of sexuality as a whole – it’s not about me, I won’t talk about it here – everything just fels like a massive betrayal of trust, but that’s clearly far more insignificant compared to the very real and very personal feelings many have toward this individual, both connected and indirect. I don’t like following “YouTube drama,” I find it to be an inherently exhausting exhibition of mudslinging and yelling, and I especially don’t like talking about said issues of drama in any capacity.

But when it’s with someone who I thought was an honest and virtuous individual for several years, it’s when I need to chime in and just write about how… sad this makes me.

As if it needs to be said, let alone by this random nobody on the internet, it is NEVER okay to give unwanted advances to any individual who has shown they will not reciprocate said advances, nor is it EVER okay to continue those advances to anyone who has shown clear discomfort over such actions. If they are not interested, DO NOT push and badger. It’s that simple.

Also, as if it needs to be said, if you’re 18 or 19 years old you do NOT talk to 15 year olds over the internet in such a manner. Ever. EVER.

For what it’s worth, this individual has gone into some form of a mental health clinic/rehabilitation facility and is basically going to drop off the face of the earth for an undisclosed amount of time, and I do hope that some amount of good can be formed from this entire disappointing ordeal and revelation of years’ worth of misconduct, both from him and from, for lack of a more tactful term, his victims, whatever that “good” may be going forward. But that’s the naive optimist in me talking, though.

I’m sad, I’m angry, I’m disappointed, and above all else, I am just so tired of the same issues coming out every single time with internet people. Learn to be normal civilized human beings, for fuck’s sake.

Picking the Skins – Divisional Round

The quarterfinals. The elite 8. The divisional round. The best weekend of football all year long. Eight teams remain after a fantastically nutty wild card weekend and the stakes are only going to get higher and higher as we near closer to the end.

Let’s run it all down.

Saturday 4:30 (ABC/ESPN)

#4 Houston @ #1 Baltimore (-10)

Prediction: Houston (sorry, the STROUDS) had a hell of a showing against Cleveland last week, firing on all cylinders to not only take the win in decisive fashion but do it with time to spare. They won’t have as easy of a time against this Baltimore team, especially with Mark Andrews set to return and newly signed Dalvin Cook coming in for some extra oomph and insurance in their quest to give Lamar Jackson his second ever playoff victory. Remember the record, this era of the Ravens is 1-5 in the postseason since 2018, there’s always something that happens to them that brings them back down to earth in deflating fashion. They’re going to need all the “Johnny”s in the world to keep that from happening, but if there was any year for Baltimore to finish the job it would be this one – but this Houston team will not go down without a fight, even if the on field weather is poised to be pretty frigid. Expect an air raid show on Saturday, a fight between the expertise of John Harbaugh and the gutsy rookie in DeMeco Ryans, and hopefully more of a QB battle in the cold than what Miami put up against Kansas City last week. Even though Baltimore is favored by 10, something tells me that this game may be closer than we think, and because of that I’m going on UPSET WATCH for this game – give me Houston making it to the AFC Championship game next week. Yes, this is a bold move that will assuredly blow up in my face, but I want to see one last sprinkling of chaos this season.
Result: Let it be known that it was close early on, a surprisingly close game in the first half, but by the time the second half happened it was a runaway game for Baltimore. CJ Stroud just had a real off day, and the playoffs are the worst time to have it happen. Lamar did his thing, the Ravens O-line did their thing, and the Texans just couldn’t get anything done amidst a deafeningly loud crowd inside M&T. Despite the unfortunate end to the season, this was a massive success for the Houston team, going from Tank Bowl contenders to winning the AFC South and establishing their youthful exuberance into a force to be reckoned with in the future. Baltimore continues their meteoric ascent toward the championship, but they’ll have one more challenge in their way – good luck to them, it won’t be a easy fight.
L

Saturday 8:15 (Fox)

#7 Green Bay @ #1 San Francisco (-10)

Prediction: Green Bay made history last week by being the first 7 seed in this new expanded playoffs era to make it out of the wild card round – and against Dallas? Even more hilarious. But while they beat a team they usually beat, now they face a team that usually beats them, especially in the playoffs. San Francisco is well rested, the team is expected to come out at full strength in front of the home crowd in Santa Clara, and a battle of young elite quarterbacks between Jordan Love and Brock Purdy will be a very fun battle to behold – and yes, Brock Purdy IS elite, shut the arguments down already. And to the jackasses at ESPN Radio Milwaukee who thought it was a good idea to talk about giving a late hit to Brock to hurt him, take this ratio with you all the way down to the depths of Hell – EVERYONE said it was bullshit, from Richard Sherman to Tom Grossi, and rightfully so. Be careful what you wish for, though, given how hard guys like Nick Bosa and Chase Young and Fred Warner and Charvarious Ward and ESPECIALLY Dre Greenlaw, if he’s healthy and ready to go, can deliver. That being said, this 49ers team knows what to expect from this Packers team on both sides of the field – neutralize their pass rush, tighten up the coverages on Love’s main targets, and exploit Joe Barry’s defensive schemes to get this game widened out in hurry. Given how these games tend to go, it’s either going to be a runaway scoring game or a close defensive battle, never anything in between, but you know me – 49ers all day. Do it for Steve Young, Niners. Do it for THE BAY.
Result: Let’s get this out of the way early – it was raining pretty hard all night in Santa Clara and that had a major effect on the on field production for this game, especially for San Francisco. It wasn’t as much of a defensive battle but it was close, a bit too close for comfort for this 49ers fan, with some assured scares to be had with how not-so-dominant San Francisco was against Green Bay. Naturally, this meant that the sports media at large had a very normal reaction to Brock Purdy having a less-than-perfect night, especially since Deebo Samuel was taken out of the game early (seriously, HOW do you miss that helmet hit from Jaire Alexander???), but there are some stout defenders in the form of Shannon Sharpe, Jemele Hill, Pat McAfee, and Tim Kawakami of The Athletic who said, quote, “Purdy’s powers are diminished greatly when he can’t get a good grip on the ball. That doesn’t mean he’ll never play a good game in the rain. He’s only days past his 24th birthday, he’s finishing his first full season as an NFL starter and — oh, this point is fairly important — despite his struggles, the 49ers quarterback was absolutely on target for the entirety of the late drive to beat the Packers on Saturday in the divisional-round drizzle, which was his third career playoff victory in four starts.” All he needed was one moment, and when down by 4 in the fourth, he lead a game-winning touchdown drive to get in the red zone and let Christian McCaffrey walk in for the touchdown, coupled with a two-pick game from Dre Greenlaw and Greenlaw getting the game sealing INT. It wasn’t a pretty win, but it was a win – and we don’t need Brock Purdy to be the second coming of Joe Montana or Steve Young, or a carbon copy of Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady, we just need him to go out and do his thing like he’s done since he took over – and he’s done exactly that. Green Bay will be back in this position in the future, for sure, but they’re going to have that permanent red chip on their shoulder for a while longer, dropping their fifth straight playoff loss against San Francisco. Take the season in stride, Packers fans, you’ll be just fine. As for us, the weather in Santa Clara is set to be MUCH better on Sunday, and with Deebo Samuel avoiding significant injury we’ll be set for one more fight at home.
W

Sunday 3pm (NBC)

#4 Tampa Bay @ #3 Detroit (-7)

Prediction: Baker Mayfield is playing like a man with nothing to lose and he lead a fantastic charge against Philadelphia – we told you so, Eagles fans – with a Bucs team that also has little to lose, given that they entered with a 9-8 season and very little expectation to go deep in the playoffs. But now they have to go up against a tougher matchup in the Lions inside Ford Field, which is going to be an ELECTRIC atmosphere to be in, so they better be ready for a tough matchup. Tampa’s defense is as rigid and stout as it can be, but if Detroit can keep their offensive playcalling in check they’ll deliver just enough to win and make it to the NFC Championship. And that’s what I’m going for, give me Detroit winning this game and closing out the run at Ford Field this year with a bang.
Result: It was raucous, it was loud, and it was electric inside Ford Field for this game. It was a bit more evenly matched at first, a tie game entering halftime, but a big defensive stop in the fourth quarter and an interception late was all Detroit needed to get to their first NFC Championship game since 1991. Give Tampa some extra credit for trying to come back into the game late, but it just wasn’t enough, so now they get to go through an offseason of uncertainty – but don’t worry, they’d be fools to not re-sign Mike Evans. Baker, though? We’ll see. And now Detroit gets to go to Santa Clara on Sunday for what’s looking like the fight of their lives in what should be a very fun matchup.
W

Sunday 6:30 (CBS)

#3 Kansas City @ #2 Buffalo (-3)

Prediction: Allen-Mahomes VII – the rubber match of what’s become the defining quarterback rivalry of the decade. All tied up at 3 wins each, with Buffalo victorious in the last two matchups while Kansas City has won both playoff matchups to date. But this Kansas City is a bit different, they’re not as cutthroat and convincing as they have been in years’ past, while Buffalo has found a bizarre edge to their momentum in recent weeks. This being Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game will give Buffalo a slight advantage, hosting their nemesis in what will be another cold and potentially snow-covered game, and while both teams will have a neutral standing in cold weather I’m going to give Buffalo the edge because it is being played at home, Josh Allen looks ready to prove his critics dead wrong (please do it), and as far as it being the rubber match goes this time Buffalo will get the advantage and finally lead the rivalry for the first time.
Result: 50 million viewers tuned in for this game, peaking at 56 million, and it wasn’t even the championship game. And what we had were three quarters of a prime chess match of high quality football, both teams going blow for blow and punch for punch and delivering the fans watching at home exactly who and what they wanted to see the most: Jason Kelce, shirtless in the frigid Buffalo winter, downing beers like it were just water. What a fine specimen of a man, indeed. And while the first three quarters were an exquisite exhibition, the fourth quarter… got stupid. A fake punt attempt from Buffalo failing and leading to a Kansas City fumble touchback (say goodbye to that rule next season, folks) was just how it started, but then… Buffalo overthought everything. But that was nothing compared to the amplification of pain delivered to the Bills in the very end: Wide Right II. It happened again. And it cost Buffalo a chance at finally overcoming their demons. Kansas City wins and they’re headed to Baltimore on Sunday, while Buffalo begins another offseason of questioning. They’ve done everything they can to get over the hump, but they just can’t, and because of it there has been a notable curse: the Josh Allen curse. Whoever beats the Bills in the playoffs lose their next game, as has happened the last four years. Kansas City is going to hope there’s no need for superstition focus against Baltimore, they’re going to have a hard enough task as it is.
L

CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY:
Sunday 3pm (CBS)

#3 Kansas City @ #1 Baltimore

Sunday 6:30 (Fox)

#3 Detroit @ #1 San Francisco

Picking the Skins – Divisional Round Predictions

The quarterfinals. The elite 8. The divisional round. The best weekend of football all year long. Eight teams remain after a fantastically nutty wild card weekend and the stakes are only going to get higher and higher as we near closer to the end. And not to toot my own horn too much, but I *did* go 6 for 6 in predictions last week, so maybe I know what I’m talking about after all. But let’s get to the next matchups here.

Like last time, predictions will come first and the results will come later.

Saturday 4:30 (ABC/ESPN)

#4 Houston @ #1 Baltimore (-10)

Prediction: Houston (sorry, the STROUDS) had a hell of a showing against Cleveland last week, firing on all cylinders to not only take the win in decisive fashion but do it with time to spare. They won’t have as easy of a time against this Baltimore team, especially with Mark Andrews set to return and newly signed Dalvin Cook coming in for some extra *oomph* and insurance in their quest to give Lamar Jackson his second ever playoff victory. Remember the record, this era of the Ravens is 1-5 in the postseason since 2018, there’s always something that happens to them that brings them back down to earth in deflating fashion. They’re going to need all the “Johnny”s in the world to keep that from happening, but if there was any year for Baltimore to finish the job it would be this one – but this Houston team will not go down without a fight, even if the on field weather is poised to be pretty frigid. Expect an air raid show on Saturday, a fight between the expertise of John Harbaugh and the gutsy rookie in DeMeco Ryans, and hopefully more of a QB battle in the cold than what Miami put up against Kansas City last week. Even though Baltimore is favored by 10, something tells me that this game may be closer than we think, and because of that I’m going on UPSET WATCH for this game – give me Houston making it to the AFC Championship game next week. Yes, this is a bold move that will assuredly blow up in my face, but I want to see one last sprinkling of chaos this season.

Saturday 8:15 (Fox)

#7 Green Bay @ #1 San Francisco (-10)

Prediction: Green Bay made history last week by being the first 7 seed in this new expanded playoffs era to make it out of the wild card round – and against Dallas? Even more hilarious. But while they beat a team they usually beat, now they face a team that usually beats them, especially in the playoffs. San Francisco is well rested, the team is expected to come out at full strength in front of the home crowd in Santa Clara, and a battle of young elite quarterbacks between Jordan Love and Brock Purdy will be a very fun battle to behold – and yes, Brock Purdy IS elite, shut the arguments down already. And to the jackasses at ESPN Radio Milwaukee who thought it was a good idea to talk about giving a late hit to Brock to hurt him, take this ratio with you all the way down to the depths of Hell – EVERYONE said it was bullshit, from Richard Sherman to Tom Grossi, and rightfully so. Be careful what you wish for, though, given how hard guys like Nick Bosa and Chase Young and Fred Warner and Charvarious Ward and ESPECIALLY Dre Greenlaw, if he’s healthy and ready to go, can deliver. That being said, this 49ers team knows what to expect from this Packers team on both sides of the field – neutralize their pass rush, tighten up the coverages on Love’s main targets, and exploit Joe Barry’s defensive schemes to get this game widened out in hurry. Given how these games tend to go, it’s either going to be a runaway scoring game or a close defensive battle, never anything in between, but you know me – 49ers all day. Do it for Steve Young, Niners. Do it for THE BAY.

Sunday 3pm (NBC)

#4 Tampa Bay @ #3 Detroit (-7)

Prediction: Baker Mayfield is playing like a man with nothing to lose and he lead a fantastic charge against Philadelphia – we told you so, Eagles fans – with a Bucs team that also has little to lose, given that they entered with a 9-8 season and very little expectation to go deep in the playoffs. But now they have to go up against a tougher matchup in the Lions inside Ford Field, which is going to be an ELECTRIC atmosphere to be in, so they better be ready for a tough matchup. Tampa’s defense is as rigid and stout as it can be, but if Detroit can keep their offensive playcalling in check they’ll deliver just enough to win and make it to the NFC Championship. And that’s what I’m going for, give me Detroit winning this game and closing out the run at Ford Field this year with a bang.

Sunday 6:30 (CBS)

#3 Kansas City @ #2 Buffalo (-3)

Prediction: Allen-Mahomes VII – the rubber match of what’s become the defining quarterback rivalry of the decade. All tied up at 3 wins each, with Buffalo victorious in the last two matchups while Kansas City has won both playoff matchups to date. But this Kansas City is a bit different, they’re not as cutthroat and convincing as they have been in years’ past, while Buffalo has found a bizarre edge to their momentum in recent weeks. This being Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game will give Buffalo a slight advantage, hosting their nemesis in what will be another cold and potentially snow-covered game, and while both teams will have a neutral standing in cold weather I’m going to give Buffalo the edge because it is being played at home, Josh Allen looks ready to prove his critics dead wrong (please do it), and as far as it being the rubber match goes this time Buffalo will get the advantage and finally lead the rivalry for the first time.

CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY PREDICTION:

Sunday 3pm (CBS)

#4 Houston @ #2 Buffalo

Sunday 6:30 (Fox)

#3 Detroit @ #1 San Francisco

“I had a dream I got everything I wanted.” Picking the Skins – Wild Card Weekend

We’ve made it to the promised land of the postseason. 14 teams are left, though only 12 will be playing in this first round on the road to Las Vegas, and both San Francisco and Baltimore can sit back and prepare for whomever survives at the bottom of the pecking order. Six games across three networks (and a streaming platform because the league loves money for nothing), let’s hope I can get these right for my own selfish master plan to come to fruition.

Saturday 4:30 (NBC)

#5 Cleveland @ #4 Houston (+2)

Prediction: When the scriptwriters put this matchup together, they certainly didn’t expect Joe Flacco to be the one leading the charge for Cleveland. Out of sheer desperation, they found the fountain of youth residing within the most ELITE of the elite quarterbacks, but they go up against a young elite quarterback all his own in CJ Stroud, leading a different kind of comeback story for Houston. From losing out on the Tank Bowl a season ago to winning the AFC South and hosting a playoff game for the first time in four years with a rookie quarterback fitting the “franchise” role quite well, this should be a highly explosive game if both teams are playing at 100 percent. It won’t be easy for Houston, given how suffocating Cleveland’s defense can be, but I’m going to give them the slight edge for their passing offense doing just enough to edge out Cleveland and make it to the divisional round. But if Cleveland does win? There be CHAOS afoot.

Result: Evidently this was as far as Cleveland was allowed to go by way of karmic penance for their signing of a certain individual who shall remain nameless. But more than that, it felt like a torch passing game, from one elite quarterback to a new breed of elite… albeit in a very strange manner. CJ Stroud was back to being a fire god on this night while Joe Flacco regressed from actual elite to “eLItE” in the ironic sense. Cleveland, you’ve had your fun, but you can’t afford to keep Flacco full-time. Good luck paying all that GUARANTEED money you can’t get out of. Hope it was worth it. But don’t rest too much, Houston – you have to pay a visit to Baltimore next. Good luck.

W

Saturday 8:15 (Peacock)

#6 Miami @ #3 Kansas City (-5)

Prediction: What a game to be paywalled to Peacock, a battle of AFC elites being played in absolutely frigid conditions – snowy with near-zero temperatures and *antarctic* wind chills. It’s poised to be one of the coldest football games on record, sitting next to the Ice Bowl of 1967 and the Freezer Bowl of 1982, and in both of those cases the advantage was with the home team. Miami really regrets losing to Buffalo now, trading a balmy (albeit rainy) 70 degree kickoff to an expected 5 degrees and having to play deep into the evening in what will feel like an ice chamber. That’s not to say Kansas City will have an easy time, though, since they need to fix up all of their struggles if they want to (most likely) have their revenge match with Buffalo, and given how sluggish they’ve been as of late it won’t be a guarantee they can assure will happen. Miami isn’t at 100 percent, though, and although I’d like to see them win their first playoff game in nearly 25 years I don’t think it’ll happen here. I’m sorry, Niners East, but it’s not your time yet.

Result: Did I say 5 degrees? I meant NEGATIVE 5 degrees with wind chills of near NEGATIVE THIRTY. This game was as painful to maneuver through as it was to keep paying attention to on Peacock with a C crew handling the production on the night. But as expected, Miami was never going to perform well in frigid conditions, let alone with their defensive core completely battered and unable to stop anything. KC wins the game that has not been named yet – Ice Bowl II? Freezer Bowl II? The Peacock Bowl? – and will most likely travel to Buffalo for the next round of Allen vs. Mahomes, while Miami goes through another offseason of doubt and questioning for who’s responsible for why they can’t win a playoff game. As per usual.

W

Sunday 4:30 (Fox)

#7 Green Bay @ #2 Dallas (-7)

Prediction: For what was supposed to be a rebuild year, Green Bay definitely overperformed for the season and seemingly found their next franchise quarterback in Jordan Love, which means everything after week 18 is just gravy for them… barring Joe Barry, of course. Dallas has a lot to prove as well with this postseason, as the annual rounds of “this is OUR year” have only gotten louder and louder with every passing year, but there are two thorns in the side of Dallas that tend to have their number more times than not: the first is San Francisco and the second is, you guessed it, Green Bay. We’ll see if they can do it with Jordan Love, and even though it’s a fool’s bet to make I’m going for Green Bay to beat Dallas, and for two reasons: because it would be hilarious, and because that would mean Green Bay has to pay a visit to San Francisco once again. Just let me have this, Green Bay, fight against Perna’s curse and pull off a hilarious upset.

Result: [FIVE STRAIGHT MINUTES OF UPROARIOUS LAUGHTER, SCOOTER MAGRUDER TIKTOK DANCES, AND IRONIC “HOW BOUT DEM COWBOYS” POSTURING] (Green Bay won in decisive fashion, Dallas is keeping Mike McCarthy for another year while they figure out how to pay everyone, everyone had a great time, and Green Bay will head to San Francisco next week.)

W

Sunday 8:15 (NBC)

#6 LA Rams @ #3 Detroit (-3)

Prediction: The homecoming game for Matthew Stafford, back in Detroit and taking them on with his own band of young guns and hotrods. For LA, it’s about keeping their championship expectations above the surface by any means necessary, which means a lot of targets to their wide receivers. For Detroit, though, it’s about unleashing 30 years of misery, frustration, and agonizing desire out on all of their opponents: they want it ALL and they’ll do whatever they can to make it to the dance. LA has the biggest factor of unpredictability to them out of all of these playoff teams, and that makes them a dangerous team for anyone to go up against, even – and especially – San Francisco. But Detroit hasn’t been in this position in a very long time, and they’re not just hungry – they’re STARVING. Give me Detroit winning and making it to the divisional round.

Result: If a football game could be a 12-round boxing fight, this game would fit the billing and then some. Body shots, jabs, haymakers, all night long in the effort of finding that one opening with as even of a match as you can find. Big throws, big runs, big plays all around, and some… shall we say, *questionable* calls and no-calls thrown about. But it came down to the 12th and final round with Detroit getting one last blow in to deliver a 1-point victory and keep their playoff hopes alive and well. LA, fret not, for you have a young core that will assuredly annoy the crap out of the rest of the NFC West for a few years, you’ll be fine. Detroit, take this win and celebrate, but not for too long – you have a match with a pretender next Sunday.

W

Sunday 1pm Monday 4:30pm (CBS)

#7 Pittsburgh @ #2 Buffalo (-10)

Prediction: Pittsburgh has, once again, proven that the standard IS, in fact, the standard – do the barest minimum to get a wild card spot and make no changes for the longterm future of the franchise. That’s the good news. The bad news is that you’re traveling to Buffalo and it will be FRIGID and you don’t have TJ Watt. But you’ll have Minkah Fitzpatrick back? Yay? I mean… yeah, barring a giant collapse from Buffalo this will likely be a no-contest prediction to make. Buffalo all the way this time… well, ALMOST all the way, I mean.

Result: After dealing with three feet of snow and a lot of hours of work to clear the field (but not all of the stands), this game finally happened, and it actually went better than expected for Pittsburgh. They didn’t completely collapse, they held their own, and they keep things competitive… in the second half. In the first half, it was ALL Bills, and though it got a little dicey late Buffalo kept their lead and secured their next game with a new old foe: Kansas City. Only this time, it’ll be in Orchard Park. Please beat them, Buffalo. For all of us. And as for Pittsburgh? Time for another long offseason in regards to Mike Tomlin. Be ready.

W

Monday 8pm (ABC/ESPN)

#5 Philadelphia @ #4 Tampa Bay (+3)

Prediction: A wild card game on Monday. It doesn’t feel right. But the league loves getting broadcast rights money, so we deal with it however we can. In this case, though, we have what we can now call the “Tank Division Invitational” with a team visiting Tampa as a pit stop before the divisional round, but this year it’s a team that looks… lost. Not just lost, but completely directionless. From starting 10-1 to finishing 11-6, this Philadelphia team is either hoping Tampa is more hurt and sluggish than they are so they can sneak by and make it another week. And what’s sad is that it might work, thanks to how hurt Baker Mayfield has been playing. But I don’t want to see this Philadelphia team be rewarded for their nonsense all season. Pride always cometh before the fall, as you all know. Tampa, put the nail in their coffin so you can face Detroit next week.

Result: And we thought Dallas had the worst performance all weekend long. Philadelphia looked completely lost in this game, their defense couldn’t stop a breeze and their offensive scheming has severely regressed compared to last year, and it all came to a head against, of all teams, TAMPA. Baker Mayfield delivered the goods for the Bucs to get them a trip to Detroit on Sunday, and did so in decisive fashion, even getting us the ultimate play: a wild card round SAFETY on Philadelphia. So what was the moment that broke this Eagles team – the 49ers loss? The Cardinals loss? Promoting Matt Patricia? I think it was when Nick Sirianni decided to get mouthy to the Chiefs fans after that game in November, and that brought quite a hex on the Eagles that ruined their season going forward – from 9-1 to only winning two more games and losing to San Francisco, Dallas, Seattle, Arizona, and the GIANTS. If anyone wanted to see a reboot of the 2020 Steelers, this was it. What a spectacular collapse capped off by an absolutely pathetic display of futility. Don’t come back until you learn to treat your opponents as equals, Philly. And maybe don’t make your coordinators into scapegoats this time.

W

DIVISIONAL ROUND:

Saturday 4:15 (ABC)

#4 Houston @ #1 Baltimore

Saturday 8pm (Fox)

#7 Green Bay @ #1 San Francisco

Sunday 3pm (NBC)

#4 Tampa Bay @ #3 Detroit

Sunday 6:30 (CBS)

#3 Kansas City @ #2 Buffalo

Picking the Skins – Wild Card Predictions

We’ve made it to the promised land of the postseason. 14 teams are left, though only 12 will be playing in this first round on the road to Las Vegas, and both San Francisco and Baltimore can sit back and prepare for whomever survives at the bottom of the pecking order. Six games across three networks (and a streaming platform because the league loves money for nothing), let’s hope I can get these right for my own selfish master plan to come to fruition.

Results will come after Monday. These games are too big to hold off until after they’re over.

Saturday 4:30 (NBC)

#5 Cleveland @ #4 Houston (+2)

Prediction: When the scriptwriters put this matchup together, they certainly didn’t expect Joe Flacco to be the one leading the charge for Cleveland. Out of sheer desperation, they found the fountain of youth residing within the most ELITE of the elite quarterbacks, but they go up against a young elite quarterback all his own in CJ Stroud, leading a different kind of comeback story for Houston. From losing out on the Tank Bowl a season ago to winning the AFC South and hosting a playoff game for the first time in four years with a rookie quarterback fitting the “franchise” role quite well, this should be a highly explosive game if both teams are playing at 100 percent. It won’t be easy for Houston, given how suffocating Cleveland’s defense can be, but I’m going to give them the slight edge for their passing offense doing just enough to edge out Cleveland and make it to the divisional round. But if Cleveland does win? There be CHAOS afoot.

Saturday 8:15 (Peacock)

#6 Miami @ #3 Kansas City (-5)

Prediction: What a game to be paywalled to Peacock, a battle of AFC elites being played in absolutely frigid conditions – snowy with near-zero temperatures and *antarctic* wind chills. It’s poised to be one of the coldest football games on record, sitting next to the Ice Bowl of 1967 and the Freezer Bowl of 1982, and in both of those cases the advantage was with the home team. Miami really regrets losing to Buffalo now, trading a balmy (albeit rainy) 70 degree kickoff to an expected 5 degrees and having to play deep into the evening in what will feel like an ice chamber. That’s not to say Kansas City will have an easy time, though, since they need to fix up all of their struggles if they want to (most likely) have their revenge match with Buffalo, and given how sluggish they’ve been as of late it won’t be a guarantee they can assure will happen. Miami isn’t at 100 percent, though, and although I’d like to see them win their first playoff game in nearly 25 years I don’t think it’ll happen here. I’m sorry, Niners East, but it’s not your time yet.

Sunday 1pm (CBS)

#7 Pittsburgh @ #2 Buffalo (-10)

Prediction: Pittsburgh has, once again, proven that the standard IS, in fact, the standard – do the barest minimum to get a wild card spot and make no changes for the longterm future of the franchise. That’s the good news. The bad news is that you’re traveling to Buffalo and it will be FRIGID and you don’t have TJ Watt. But you’ll have Minkah Fitzpatrick back? Yay? I mean… yeah, barring a giant collapse from Buffalo this will likely be a no-contest prediction to make. Buffalo all the way this time… well, ALMOST all the way, I mean.

Sunday 4:30 (Fox)

#7 Green Bay @ #2 Dallas (-7)

Prediction: For what was supposed to be a rebuild year, Green Bay definitely overperformed for the season and seemingly found their next franchise quarterback in Jordan Love, which means everything after week 18 is just gravy for them… barring Joe Barry, of course. Dallas has a lot to prove as well with this postseason, as the annual rounds of “this is OUR year” have only gotten louder and louder with every passing year, but there are two thorns in the side of Dallas that tend to have their number more times than not: the first is San Francisco and the second is, you guessed it, Green Bay. We’ll see if they can do it with Jordan Love, and even though it’s a fool’s bet to make I’m going for Green Bay to beat Dallas, and for two reasons: because it would be hilarious, and because that would mean Green Bay has to pay a visit to San Francisco once again. Just let me have this, Green Bay, fight against Perna’s curse and pull off a hilarious upset.

Sunday 8:15 (NBC)

#6 LA Rams @ #3 Detroit (-3)

Prediction: The homecoming game for Matthew Stafford, back in Detroit and taking them on with his own band of young guns and hotrods. For LA, it’s about keeping their championship expectations above the surface by any means necessary, which means a lot of targets to their wide receivers. For Detroit, though, it’s about unleashing 30 years of misery, frustration, and agonizing desire out on all of their opponents: they want it ALL and they’ll do whatever they can to make it to the dance. LA has the biggest factor of unpredictability to them out of all of these playoff teams, and that makes them a dangerous team for anyone to go up against, even – and especially – San Francisco. But Detroit hasn’t been in this position in a very long time, and they’re not just hungry – they’re STARVING. Give me Detroit winning and making it to the divisional round.

Monday 8pm (ABC/ESPN)

#5 Philadelphia @ #4 Tampa Bay (+3)

Prediction: A wild card game on Monday. It doesn’t feel right. But the league loves getting broadcast rights money, so we deal with it however we can. In this case, though, we have what we can now call the “Tank Division Invitational” with a team visiting Tampa as a pit stop before the divisional round, but this year it’s a team that looks… lost. Not just lost, but completely directionless. From starting 10-1 to finishing 11-6, this Philadelphia team is either hoping Tampa is more hurt and sluggish than they are so they can sneak by and make it another week or that they can return to their prior insulting and disrespectful ways to get back to form – tall order with your key playmakers coming in hurt. And what’s sad is that it might work, thanks to how hurt Baker Mayfield has been playing. But I don’t want to see this Philadelphia team be rewarded for their nonsense all season. Pride always cometh before the fall, as you all know. Tampa, put the nail in their coffin so you can face Detroit next week.

FINAL DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS:

AFC:

#4 Houston @ #1 Baltimore

#3 Kansas City @ #2 Buffalo

NFC:

#7 Green Bay @ #1 San Francisco

#4 Tampa Bay @ #3 Detroit

“The final eliminations. Finally.” Picking the Skins – Week 18

We’ve made it to the final week of the season. And just like we all expected at the start of the season, the final push for the postseason is a colossal mess. Let the scramble commence.

And to make this a bit easier to go through, I’ll have the least important games where there are no stakes up front, just so we can get them out of the way early.

Sunday 1pm (CBS)
(P)Cleveland @ (x)Cincinnati (-7)
Prediction: Cleveland has the #5 seed locked and Cincy was eliminated last week. If we can get a good Jake Browning performance out of it, then boffo to them all. But I expect Cleveland winning here, even with Joe Flacco sitting out.
Result: I evidently need to study up on the whole “backup starts getting a lot of tape in” bit because this felt like a game from Bizarro World. Cleveland really did take the day off here and just let Cincy get all their reps in. I’m not sure if it was charity or pity.
L

Sunday 1pm (Fox)
(x)NY Jets @ (x)New England (-3)
Prediction: Nobody will pay any attention to this game. Let me see the Pats get an upset here to make the pain of the Jets even stronger, especially given recent comments from their injured quarterback last week coming out without any provocation. Idiot.
Result: Not only did the Patriots look like absolute garbage in the snow, but they let the Jets finally break their losing streak against New England in what could very well be Bill Belichick’s final game in Foxboro. Nobody wins here. What a pittance.
L

Sunday 4:25 (CBS)
(D)Kansas City @ (x)LA Chargers (-3.5)
Prediction: What will the Chiefs do with a wild card game coming up the following week? Could be interesting to see how Blaine Gabbert will fare on the day but that still won’t help the Chargers from losing at home. It’s what they deserve.
Result: Despite this game being far closer than it should have, KC still got the win because this Chargers organization can do little else except be a sucker for eternal pain. Blaine Gabbert got his tape in, Chris Jones got his $1.25 million bonus, now we move onto next weekend where the weather will certainly be frightful.
W

Sunday 4:25 (Fox)
(x)Denver @ (x)Las Vegas (-3)
Prediction: The folks getting this game on Fox are going to have a bad time. And seeing how the Broncos organization is getting very bad and very cheap, let me see the Raiders win – and hopefully secure Antonio Pierce a job for next season.
Result: The Raiders did their job at the expense of a Broncos team that suddenly looks very, VERY bad in the front office. Always a fun time. Now PLEASE hire AP full time, Mark.
W

(P)LA Rams @ (#1)San Francisco (-5)
Prediction: For what it’s worth, both teams have little to play for except bragging rights, though for the Rams a few things could knock them down to the #7 seed. Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz are starting, a bulk of the team will most likely be sitting as well, and I can only assume that’s why this is only being broadcast in California and western Nevada and also Michigan for some reason. Either way, I’m pulling for San Francisco to win here, and God willing we don’t see this matchup in the playoffs again. I remember what happened last time.
Result: The good is that Sam Darnold got some positive reps and tape in and that Puka Nakua cemented his record-setting rookie record. And that’s pretty much all there was to the game aside from the Rams winning late – as if this game meant anything, though it did break the 49ers’ streak over the Rams (congrats, you beat SAM DARNOLD and the backups by ONE point) and prevented a second straight division sweep, but the script of Stafford versus Goff in Detroit had to be adhered to by all means. Also, uh… Moody? You good? You had a real off day. You’ve got two weeks to clean your kicks up.
L

And with the meaningless games done, let’s get to the wild scenarios ahead of us.

Saturday 4:30 (ABC)
Pittsburgh @ (#1)Baltimore (+4)
Prediction: This game will depend on how Baltimore performs with Lamar Jackson sitting out, but for Pittsburgh this game is MUST-WIN BY ANY COSTS to get their playoff hopes secured, coupled with how the AFC South race finishes and how Buffalo fares. Their fate won’t be known immediately, but I feel like Baltimore will still win this game.
Result: The conditions were absolutely abysmal, freezing cold and pissing down rain all day long, but with Lamar Jackson sitting out coupled with the cold rain it seriously hindered Baltimore’s usual game plan. Pittsburgh didn’t look that much better, but they were able to get the edge up and keep their playoff hopes momentarily alive – but it came with a cost in TJ Watt getting injured and leaving him doubtful for a potential playoff run. Their fate is in the hands of other teams, so now we wait.
L

Saturday 8:15 (ABC)
Houston @ Indianapolis (+2)
Prediction: The first part of the battle for the AFC South, but it won’t be determined until Sunday afternoon. For Houston, the good news is that CJ Stroud is back in the fold, but for Indy their good news is that they’re riding high on a hot streak. This feels like it could go either way, but I’m going for Houston to pull off the edge play and get one step closer to a playoff spot.
Result: Folks… CJ Stroud is STILL HIM. Though it wasn’t the easiest victory to get, Houston succeeded in the ultimate rebound from losing out on the Tank Bowl last season, from floundering into mediocrity to making their way to a playoff spot. For Indy, however… well, the curse of Andrew Luck still lives on. Now we wait to see how the AFC South will finally be settled as. And Pittsburgh is still waiting to see how their fortune will play out after this.
W

PLAYOFF BERTH: with their victory, Houston has secured a playoff spot.

PLAYOFF ELIMINATION: with their loss, Indianapolis has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Sunday 1pm (CBS)
Jacksonville @ (x)Tennessee (+4)
Prediction: The only thing Jacksonville has to do is not completely collapse against a Tennessee team that… well, sucks. They win, they get the division title. Tennessee might be looking to play spoiler, but after shutting out Carolina the week before this Jags team is ready to plant their flag for the playoffs once again. Just don’t blow it, okay, Jags?
Result: Aaaaaaaand they blew it. They blew it in spectacular fashion. Against THIS Titans team. Let it be known there there are three known curses in football from this season: getting blown out by San Francisco, beating San Francisco and having them only score 17 points thus ruining your starting quarterback’s season, and getting hexed via the Terrible Towel. What a way to go out, and in the process securing THREE playoff spots in the AFC. And what a way for Derrick Henry’s time before free agency to come to an end, at that.
L

PLAYOFF ELIMINATION: with their loss, Jacksonville has been eliminated from playoff contention.

PLAYOFF BERTHS: with the Jacksonville loss and their victory, Pittsburgh has secured a playoff spot; with the Jacksonville loss, Buffalo has secured a playoff spot; with the Jacksonville loss, Houston has secured the AFC South division title.

Atlanta @ New Orleans (+3)
Prediction: While the AFC South race has become pretty competitive, the NFC South race is the embodiment of “SOMEBODY has to win it, I guess” – and nobody wants to. Whoever wins, it’ll be up to Tampa to not lose to Carolina, which… I mean, come on, it won’t happen. But it is possible, I suppose. Who wins this game? New Orleans. Sure, why not.
Result: Congrats, Saints, you ended up winning a meaningless game in the end and got Arthur Smith fired at 12:01am on Black Monday. But you also brought along a giant dose of unnecessary drama by going against the playcall and scoring a garbage time touchdown – while already up by 30 AND in victory formation. And you also eliminated Atlanta from the postseason, so now your dreams are in a few more hands… so you’re screwed either way.
W

PLAYOFF ELIMINATION: with their loss, Atlanta has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Sunday 1pm (Fox)
Tampa Bay @ Carolina (+5)
Prediction: For Tampa, it’s win-and-in no matter what. Carolina might – MIGHT – have a chance to play spoiler if they get the Bucs team that showed up last week, but… yeah, Carolina isn’t winning this game. Tampa will win and they’ll get the honor of being beaten to a pulp by Philly or Dallas next week.
Result: Before last week, Carolina had gone 20 years without being given a shutout loss. Now they’ve had it in back to back weeks to close out the worst season in their franchise’s history, a 2-15 campaign with a head coach fired midseason, Bryce Young becoming the most sacked QB in the league for the season, and GM Scott Fitterer getting fired on Black Monday. And what’s worse is that Tampa didn’t have to do much of anything on offense, it was just three field goals and that’s it. Congrats on the win, you get to host an NFC East team. Don’t blow it.
W

PLAYOFF BERTH/DIVISION CLINCHED: with their win, Tampa Bay has (finally) secured the NFC South and a playoff spot.

Minnesota @ (D)Detroit (-4)
Prediction: In the race for the final wild card slot, I’m sad to say that Minnesota’s run ends here. Detroit is PISSED OFF after getting screwed over last week in Dallas and they need a punching bag to batter down. Minnesota will be that punching bag.
Result: Consider that bag properly punched. Minnesota, this will be a season to forget, while for Detroit it’s a season to hang in the rafters for time eternal. Now comes the first playoff game in the history of Ford Field next weekend. Hold your heads high, Lions – you’ve made it… except for Sam LaPorta who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. But that won’t bite you next week… right?
W

PLAYOFF ELIMINATION: with their loss, Minnesota has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Sunday 4:25 (CBS)
(x)Chicago @ Green Bay (-3)
Prediction: While this Chicago team has nothing to play for, they can potentially play spoiler against Green Bay and alter their playoff seeding if a few things go their way. They did put up a strong fight last week… but I doubt it won’t happen again here. Green Bay, get your win and prepare all of the bullshit for a wild card exit.
Result: During the 2020 NFL Draft, Tom Grossi let out a heavy dose of [EXTERNAL SCREAMING] over the Packers drafting Jordan Love to be a glorified benchwarmer QB. Skip ahead nearly four years, and Tom Grossi has proclaimed this: “He is HIM.” That’s what we call character development. From rebuilding to the playoffs, it’s been quite a year for Green Bay. How far can this new Packers team go? Nobody really knows, especially with the opponent they have to visit next week. As for Chicago… look, just trade Fields and start over. It’s time. And then there’s New Orleans and Seattle… eeesh. Tough break there.
W

PLAYOFF BERTH: with their victory, Green Bay has secured a playoff spot.

PLAYOFF ELIMINATIONS: with the Green Bay victory, New Orleans and Seattle have been eliminated from playoff contention.

(P)Philadelphia @ (x)NY Giants (-6)
Prediction: The last time we saw this matchup, Philly nearly lost. Even last week, we saw the Giants nearly come back for an upset over the Rams and we saw Philly choke hard against the CARDINALS of all teams. I can’t say with certainty that we’ll see another choke here, but if the Giants want to play spoiler I won’t be mad. But I still think Philly will win here since they can’t afford to rest their starters in a race for the division, with the exception of a few who are injured – but Philly can’t realistically lose to the Giants, right? Riiiiiight?
Result: It is officially panic time in Philly. From starting 10-1 to finishing 11-6, this is not how Eagles fans envisioned their playoff hopes turning out. But we all warned you that if you kept playing dangerous and disrespectful that it would come back to haunt you. It now has. You lost… to the GIANTS. In a game where you needed a win and insurance to get a home playoff game secured. And to amplify the pain further, AJ Brown AND Jalen Hurts are both injured leading into your playoff game with Tampa Bay next week, so now the hope is that Tampa sucks worse than Philly does so they can win and move on – and that will be the undoing of this team. You all want to face Dallas? San Francisco? BALTIMORE? You couldn’t even beat the GIANTS. No more excuses, either show up next week or get ready to get smashed into the ground.
L

DIVISION CLINCHED: with the Philadelphia loss, Dallas has secured the NFC East.

Sunday 4:25 (Fox)
(P)Dallas @ (x)Washington (+13)
Prediction: While this game won’t give Dallas their magical home field advantage, I doubt they’ll have trouble beating this Washington team. Honestly, I think both Ron Rivera and Eric Bienemy are just waiting for the game to be over so they can leave (as in, get fired on Black Monday), so take the win and take the #2 seed, Dallas, and we’ll see if you can withstand the playoffs this time.
Result: This wasn’t just a beating, this was a cataclysmic destruction. Washington stood no chance. They were clobbered and annihilated. Dallas gets to host another wild card game, this time against Green Bay, while Washington gets to fire Ron Rivera on Black Monday. Such is life.
W

Seattle @ (x)Arizona (+3)
Prediction: Seattle is hoping for a Chicago upset in Green Bay, because if they win then Seattle’s wild card hopes go up in flames. Their fate is not in their hands, but this game certainly is. I expect they’ll get the win here… if Pete Carroll doesn’t make any stupid coaching decisions, that is.
Result: And right on cue, here come the bad calls and missteps that cost Seattle a win that they REALLY could have needed… for a while before Green Bay won and eliminated them from the postseason. And winning by a missed 51 yard field goal from Matt Prater? Enjoy that offseason, Arizona, while Seattle gets ready for another round of “what do we do with Pete and Geno?” again. You all had the NFC West crown for all of ONE week this season. Great job on the campaign.
W

Sunday Night (NBC)
Buffalo @ (P)Miami (-3)
Prediction: This is a must-win for both teams with the AFC East title on the line. Miami got crushed last week while Buffalo is riding a strong hot streak, and with both teams having plenty to prove this should be a very fun game to watch. I’m going for Buffalo to win because of their upward momentum, but I’m expecting this to be a strong matchup that could go down to the final minute. It would just fit with how crazy this season has been.
Result: It started out a bit sloppy at first, but quickly became a dogfight of haymakers and hook shots between both teams. But a chance punt return touchdown was what did it for Buffalo, finishing their table-run to steal the AFC East title from Miami and earn a home playoff game next week. Although for both teams, the injury report expanded quite a bit, and they’re both going to need as many players as possible if they want some deep playoff runs; Buffalo will have an easier task next week, but Miami? Not so easy.
W

DIVISION CLINCHED: with their victory, Buffalo has secured the AFC East.

THIS WEEK: 10-6

OVERALL RECORD: 166-106

PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:
Saturday 4:30 (NBC)
(#5)Cleveland @ (#4)Houston

Saturday 8pm (Peacock)
(#6)Miami @ (#3)Kansas City

Sunday 1pm (CBS)
(#7)Pittsburgh @ (#2)Buffalo

Sunday 4:30 (Fox)
(#7)Green Bay @ (#2)Dallas

Sunday 8pm (NBC)
(#6)LA Rams @ (#3)Detroit

Monday 8:15 (ABC/ESPN)
(#5)Philadelphia @ (#4)Tampa Bay

THE SACRIFICES FOR BLACK MONDAY (THROUGH THURSDAY):

Ron Rivera (HC – Washington, 2020-23)
Scott Fitterer (GM – Carolina, 2021-23)
Arthur Smith (HC – Atlanta, 2021-23)
Mike Caldwell (DC – Jacksonville, 2022-23)
Don “Wink” Martindale (DC – NY Giants, 2022-23)
Mike Vrabel (HC – Tennessee, 2018-23)
Luke Getcy (OC – Chicago, 2022-23)
Pete Carroll (HC – Seattle, 2010-23)
Bill Belichick (OC – New England, 2000-2023)

“The end of the world… kind of?”

I’ll be honest, I’m getting really burned out on this stupid wrestling bullshit. All of the drama and the tribalism and the nonsense is just really old by now, so I’ll be taking a big step back after this week and just tune in for the big shows since I can follow everything else elsewhere. And hey, there’s nothing like an AEW show being overshadowed by a bit of awful drama, right? Ugh.

ZERO HOUR:

COLLISION DIVISION: Kris Statlander vs. Willow Nightingale – a fun match to prove who the true queen of Long Island is that sadly got a bit botchy by the end. You hate to see it happen.
3 1/2 smiles/5

20-Man TNT Championship Contract Battle Royal – the customary “get eveyrone on the card” spot that will… well, it’ll be rendered moot later in the night.
2 3/4 elimination spots/5

DYNAMITE DIVISION: Wheeler Yuta vs. HOOK (c), FTW Championship – FTW Rules – everyone loves them some HOOK and HOOK was sent to beat the BCC’s young shithead. Fun times.
3 hockey sticks/5

C2 ALL-STAR EIGHT-MAN TAG: Brody King/Jay Lethal/Rush/Jay White vs. Claudio Castagnoli/Bryan Danielson/Daniel Garcia/Mark Briscoe – star power on full display with Daniel Garcia getting the win? Excellent. Here’s hoping he can get that parlayed into an actual push THIS TIME (cough cough). Also, let us remember that Bryan Danielson is insane for doing all these matches and flying to Japan to work a match with Kazuchika Okada a few days later. Bless him.
4 finisher spams/5

COLLISION DIVISION: Andrade El Idolo vs. Miro – this is Andrade’s “see ya bye” match since he’s out of AEW after this and probably on his way back to “the Fed” for another run in the hamster wheel of midcard futility again, and we’ll run this whole thing back within a year – just watch. This being the point for the whole Miro and CJ union being a thing on screen feels a bit rushed, but circumstances are what they are. Let’s see what happens.
3 1/2 fingers avoiding MRSA/5

DYNAMITE DIVISION: Riho vs. Toni Storm (c), AEW Women’s World Championship – people have a problem with Riho because “well wait, she’s like 5 foot nothing and 95 pounds, she can’t beat anyone” while arguing the semantics of a predetermined presentation. Anyway, this match was very solid and Toni Storm’s 50s starlet gimmick is just ACES. May her reign be long and fruitful.
3 3/4 sharp kicks/5

DYNAMITE DIVISION: Swerve Strickland vs. Dustin Rhodes (sub.) – this was supposed to be with Keith Lee but he’s banged up and wasn’t cleared to compete on the show, so in comes Dustin Rhodes as a substitution… with a *weird* story beat for the match. It started with a beatdown angle and then became a longer-than-it-should-have-been match, and while the match was very good the structure felt a bit backwards. But Swerve keeps his momentum going strong as a truly evil bastard. I love it.
2 3/4 house calls/5 (-1/2 deduction for the weird structure)

At this point, my Fite feed *mysterously* cut out for about 20 minutes, but there was supposed to be another 8 man tag match and I think Sting was involved? A bit unfortunate. I wonder what actually happened, maybe my internet cut out for a bit? Oh well, moving on.

COLLISION DIVISION: Abadon vs. Julia Hart (c), TBS Championship – House Rules (biting is allowed) – Abadon has been riding a hot streak and it built up into a solid “spooky witches” match with fellow spooky witch Julia Hart. Her title run has been solid thus far, it’ll be going on for a bit longer, and good for Abadon getting a PPV payday – they’re some good spooky people.
3 spooky witches/5

COLLISION DIVISION: Adam Copeland vs. Christian Cage (c), TNT Championship – No Disqualifications – all of the vicious brutality on display was fantastic, even with the return of the FLAMING TABLE… albeit with a bit of a botch with Nick Wayne being an insane trooper and agreeing to take a spot like that, and the table DID NOT BREAK. Oof. But we did get a title change, which was great and cathartic… for about 5 minutes.
4 1/4 flaming tables/5

IMMEDIATE REMATCH: so the former Luchasaurus won the battle royal, ambushed after the match, gave his match contract to Christian… and then Christian won.
…what?/5

CONTINENTAL CLASSIC FINAL: Jon Moxley vs. Eddie Kingston – for all the marbles: the NJPW Strong Openweight Championship, the ROH World Championship, and the newly created AEW Continental Championship, a new Triple Crown title across three (really, two) companies. You love to see it. And this match was STIFF, with hard shots and chops and blows everywhere between two men who love to beat the holy fuck out of people, and that’s what makes wrestling awesome. Eddie Kingston getting the win is a beautiful moment, too, coming in as an underdog within a few weeks and emerging as the ultimate victor.
4 chops/5

DYNAMITE DIVISION: Samoa Joe vs. MJF (c), AEW World Championship – this run of unironic babyface MJF has been spectactular, and him going into this match totally injured and broken feels like the ultimate climax to this run. He gave it his all against Samoa Joe, and he even had his best friend Adam Cole (baybay) in his corner for the match, but he couldn’t withstand enough to get out of it with the title. Defeated by submission via choke hold, even Bryce Remsburg was surprised by the finish (he called it like a shoot, they’re learning), and in the end Samoa Joe is the new AEW World Champion. Amazing.
4 pieces of Rock Tape/5

POSTMATCH: the devil… is Adam Cole. It took a bit longer to come around to (thanks for busting your ankle in Queens), but we got the big reveal: it was Adam Cole all along, and he’s been working with Roderick Strong, Mike Bennett, Matt Taven, and even Wardlow. Many expected it, many saw it coming, and now it’s a thing. What happens now? Who even knows.

PARTING THOUGHTS: Not the best PPV show AEW has done, but not the worst… ever. It’s arguably the least-best show they’ve done this year thanks to a miriad of circumstances (what a shock, right?) but, as you would expect, the good was really good and the not good was really not that good. Now we move on toward their next PPV with a new world champion, Sting’s road to retirement, and a whole lot more coming up… and maybe a few new signings coming in? We’ll see how that pans out.